For 30 of the 32 NFL teams, one quarter of the season has passed. Believe it or not, we have entered October and week 5 of the 2013 NFL season. As far as predictions are concerned, September is generally my worst month to pick games because it is hard to figure teams out. This past week, I did step it up from week 3 by going 9-6. I wanted to give a shout-out to MakaylaBrooks, fredvr22, and kdeany17 for beating me in my weekly ESPN pick’em game. Details on how you can play along are at the bottom of the blog post .While my 9-6 record is not anything to be too proud of, I can almost guarantee that this week will be better. I feel as if I have a better grasp on the games, and I am going to try to improve upon my 37-26 (58.73%) season record and get back into the area that I was in last year. Let’s take a look at the 2013 week 5 NFL picks:
Buffalo Bills (2-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-2) (Thursday at 8:25 PM ET)- E.J. Manuel and the Bills are coming off an upset win over the Ravens. While Baltimore tends to be inconsistent, Buffalo has impressed early on. I highly doubt that they will be able to make any contender noise, especially with the Patriots in the division. However, with Manuel, and young running back CJ Spiller, the Bills are a team to watch in the coming years. For the Browns, on the other hand, it will probably take longer. After trading Trent Richardson, Cleveland has kind of signaled that they are just not ready to win yet. Another thing that this team is dealing with is the quarterback situation. After Brandon Weeden got injured, quarterback Brian Hoyer has filled in rather nicely, leading the Browns to back-to-back wins and now a .500 record. I highly doubt that Hoyer is the next Tom Brady, but it causes serious questions on who the Browns are going to start under center. This is a very tough pick between two fairly bad teams. However, Bills running back CJ Spiller has admitted that he might not play. And the game is in Cleveland. Winner: Browns
The following games are on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints (4-0) vs. Chicago Bears (3-1)- Drew Brees and the Saints have looked nothing but sharp, as they sit at a perfect 4-0 after four weeks of play. In the preseason, I picked the Falcons to win the NFC South, but I am not so sure anymore. That passing offense is simply incredible, and New Orleans also has a decent rushing attack with Darren Sproles. As long as their defense does not look like they did last year, look for the Saints to cruise into the playoffs. The Bears have also been a rather impressive team so far, but that did not hold true last week against the Lions. I still believe that if Jay Cutler can limit his inconsistency and use wide receiver Brandon Marshall to his advantage, the Bears can be a playoff team. Mix this in with a good running back in Matt Forte and a fantastic defense, and you have something potentially exciting going on in the Windy City. Nevertheless, there is a fine difference between these two teams. The Saints are elite. The Bears are not. Winner: Saints
New England Patriots (4-0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)- The Patriots did a good job of quieting my doubts in last week’s win over the Falcons. While I believe that the Patriots receiving crew is a weakness, elite quarterback Tom Brady can definitely pass the ball efficiently. The other good news is that New England should be getting tight end Rob Gronkowski back in the near future, adding some veteran talent to that receiving core. At 4-0, the Patriots look strong and playoff bound. The Bengals, on the other hand, have been an inconsistent team so far in 2013. After beating the Packers in week 3, this team goes into Cleveland and loses to Brian Hoyer and the Browns. If Andy Dalton and the crew want to be Super Bowl contenders, they have to eliminate those kinds of performances. With great wide receiver A.J. Green, oncoming running back Giovani Bernard, and a decent defense, this team has the talent. However, a combination of a silly loss to the Browns and a defeat to Tom Brady and the Patriots will put them below the .500 mark to start the 2013 season. Winner: Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-3)- The Jaguars are so bad, it is funny. With the exception of wide receiver Cecil Shorts, this team has just been flat-out terrible. Even running back Maurice Jones-Drew has not been producing. I consider them the worst team in the league, and no other organization even comes that close. The Rams have also not been impressive so far. After getting thumped by the 49ers last Thursday night, I am beginning to question the future of this team. The play of quarterback Sam Bradford has not been very impressive and the fact that they have a very weak running game does not help either. If the St. Louis loses this, it is panic time. Winner: Rams
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-1)- These last two weeks is exactly why I never know how to analyze the Ravens. In week 3, they got a blowout win against a good Texans team. In week 4, they lose to the Bills. There is no doubt about the fact that they are talented with quarterback Joe Flacco (when he limits those interceptions), wide receiver Torrey Smith and even elite running back Ray Rice (do not let some bad games underrate him). If they can pull through and limit the inconsistency, they are a strong playoff threat. If they are inconsistent, however, it might be tough getting back to the playoffs. The Dolphins also might have a tough time getting to the postseason. It is not because I think they are a bad team. There are just better clubs around. While quarterback Ryan Tannehill, running back Lamar Miller, and wide receiver Mike Wallace are talented, the offense needs another year or two to develop. I would not be shocked if they were able to make some sort of contention noise, but I do not see them as realistic threats. This is a very difficult pick, mainly because of the inconsistent play of the Ravens. However, since they are at home, and have had some impressive performances, I will take Miami to improve to 3-1. Winner: Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) vs. New York Giants (0-4)- After a rather impressive week 1 performance, Michael Vick and the Eagles have looked bad ever since. While this team is talented with running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver DeSean Jackson, Michael Vick is a very overrated quarterback and I do not believe the Eagles will do much of anything with him under center. Speaking of bad teams, we have the Giants. All I have to say is…wow. In the preseason, I thought that Eli Manning and this club would win the division. They have looked terrible since week 1. While Manning is still a two time Super Bowl champion, wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks remain great receivers, and New York still has a lot of talent, I no longer see it happening for this team as far as the playoffs are concerned. This is a difficult pick. However, looking at the rosters, I just cannot pick Vick’s team to go on the road and beat a champion veteran like Manning, especially with all of the other talent the G-men have on their roster. I will take New York in a squeaker. Winner: Giants
Detroit Lions (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-2)- Matthew Stafford and the Lions had a very impressive performance last week against the Bears. At 3-1 and atop the division, perhaps the Lions could be more of contenders than I thought. With Stafford, running back Reggie Bush, and the best wide receiver in the league with Calvin Johnson, I am beginning to like this team more in the NFC. After kind of a rough start, the division foes Packers are coming off their bye week rested and ready to go. Despite the 1-2 commencement, I really am not worried about this team. They have a fantastic quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, plenty of weapon receivers, an emerging running game, and a good defense. While the Lions have brought it, I think Green Bay will have a little too much at home. Winner: Packers
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-1)- Alex Smith and the Chiefs are off to an impressive start to the 2013 season. While they have not beaten any great teams, I am beginning to see them as more of playoff contenders with Smith, elite running back Jamaal Charles, and some decent weapon wide receivers. The Titans have also looked decent throughout the first four weeks, even though they have bad news. It appears that quarterback Jake Locker will have to miss at least a few weeks because of a hip injury. This is a big blow because I have really begun to like Locker more and more in this 2013 season. With the injury, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start under center. While Fitzpatrick is obviously no Peyton Manning, he has shown some signs of being decent when he was a Buffalo Bill, leaving some sort of hope in that regard. With a pretty good running game in Chris Johnson, the Titans might still have enough to at least keep things somewhat interesting in the AFC. Nevertheless, Kansas City should have too much. Winner: Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks (4-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-1)- The Seahawks proved that they can take their winnings on the road, as they beat the Texans in Houston last week. I am beginning to like this team more and more. If quarterback Russell Wilson, elite running back Marshawn Lynch, and those young receivers can continue to produce, look for the Seahawks to be Super Bowl contenders. Andrew Luck and the Colts also have been playing like Super Bowl contenders lately. With the very talented Luck, new running back Trent Richardson, and some decent receivers, the Colts are now looking like a strong playoff team. Strong enough, as a matter of fact, to squeak out a win over the Seahawks at home. Winner: Colts
Carolina Panthers (1-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (Sunday at 4:05 PM ET)- The Panthers are a team who I am just not a huge believer in. Sure, quarterback Cam Newton is talented and has the ability to make the big throw. The problem for this club is that they really do not have a lot of other weapons. Their receiving crew is fairly inconsistent, and their running game with DeAngelo Williams is just mediocre. Probably not a playoff team. The Cardinals are also probably not a playoff team. While Carson Palmer and the crew got a comeback win last week against the Buccaneers, it was the Buccaneers. Palmer has improved this team, and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald also looks pretty sharp. However, there are simply better teams more deserving of a playoff spot than Arizona. This is a tough pick between two relatively even teams. Coming off their bye week well-rested, I will take Carolina in a tight one. Winner: Panthers
Denver Broncos (4-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (Sunday at 4:25 PM ET)- The Broncos are off to one of the greatest starts I have ever seen. Peyton Manning and all of his weapons make running an NFL offense look easy and they are definitely the best team in the NFL right now. The Cowboys look like they do every year: inconsistent. I guess that is what you should expect when you have Tony Romo running the offense. While the NFC East is a wide open division this year, and it is definitely possible for the Cowboys to get to the playoffs, I am just not a believer in Romo. Sure, the Cowboys have a great wide receiver in Dez Bryant, and a good running attack with DeMarco Murray. But with Romo under center, they are simply not going to get very far. There is no way they win this game, even at home. Winner: Broncos
Houston Texans (2-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (Sunday at 8:30 PM ET)- There are is one big thing that concerns me about the Texans: their inconsistency. They have yet to beat a good team, and they got crushed by the Ravens in week 3. This team is very talented and well-balanced with quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson on the passing attack, and running back Arian Foster running the ball. Nevertheless, things have not always clicked and that does get me worried. The 49ers, on the other hand, got right on track last week against the Rams. I have not lost faith in quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s offense, and with good offensive weapons and a stellar defense, I consider them an elite team. At home, I will also pick them to beat the up-and-down Texans. Winner: 49ers
San Diego Chargers (2-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-3) (Sunday at 11:35 PM ET)- The Chargers are, to put it simply, a mediocre team. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is mediocre, running back Ryan Matthews is mediocre, their receivers are mediocre, and their defense is…mediocre. I do not think that this team has enough to get into the postseason, especially considering the fact that they play in the AFC West. However, I do think San Diego will have enough to beat bad teams. While I see some potential with the Raiders, I consider them among the worst teams in the NFL. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor has shown some flashes of talent, but the truth is that they just do not have enough, especially with Darren McFadden going down. Even though they are on the road, I will pick the team who I trust a little more to win this late Sunday night showdown. Winner: Chargers
New York Jets (2-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3) (Monday at 8:30 PM ET)- Rookie quarterback Geno Smith is playing like a typical rookie quarterback. The Jets are just not built to win, and their biggest hope this season should be for Smith to play well so he can be the face of the Jets’ future. They just do not have that much talent at all positions, and I consider them among the NFL’s worst. While the Falcons have been off to somewhat of a disappointing start, let us revisit the teams that they have lost to: the Saints, the Dolphins, and the Patriots. These teams have a combined record of 11-1. While that Dolphins loss concerns me a tad, I do not believe that it is time to press the panic button. This team has plenty of talent with quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White, tight end Tony Gonzalez, and running back Steven Jackson (when he is healthy). I fully expect them to get right back on track in this week 5 finale. Winner: Falcons
Do you disagree with what I’m saying? Do you think I’m an idiot? Well, you can prove me wrong using the ESPN Pick’em game. You even have a chance to win a whole blog post dedicated strictly to you and a code for a $5 iTunes gift card. Details: https://jacobssportstalk.wordpress.com/2013/08/22/announcing-jacobs-sports-commentary-pickem-game/
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