Three of the 17 2014 NFL regular season weeks have been completed, and this season has not failed to give us its share of surprises.
Some teams who we thought would contend for the Super Bowl (Packers, Patriots, Saints, 49ers), have gotten off to slow starts, while others have surprised in a more positive manner.
The surprises do show a little bit in my weekly predictions, as a 10-6 week 3 record and a 27-21 (56.25%) 2014 record are both rather mediocre.
However, surprises are typical in the first few weeks of the season. As consistency blankets the NFL, that percentage will increase and the analysis will become more accurate.
Before we get rolling with the week 4 picks, I would like to remind all of my readers about the weekly contests I run.
On Thursday at 4:00 PM ET, I will release this week’s trivia question right here on this blog. Be the first to tweet me the correct answer @jacobs_sports, and you will be automatically entered to win a $10 Amazon gift card at the end of the season.
We do this every Thursday, all regular season long, and if you would like more information, please refer to the following link or the one at the bottom of this blog post: https://jacobssportstalk.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/annoucing-jacobs-sports-talk-nfl-twitter-trivia-contest
Only time will tell what will really happen on the field, but for now, I can give it my best, researched guess. Here are the predictions for week 4:
New York Giants (1-2) vs. Washington Redskins (1-2) (Thursday at 8:25 PM ET)-
Both of these NFC East teams are rather mediocre, and in all honesty, I do not expect either to make the playoffs.
However, under quarterback Kirk Cousins, I believe that it is the Redskins running a more organized and explosive offense. They have more offensive weapons, they create fewer turnovers, they kept things close against the undefeated Eagles last week, and at home, I think they will have enough to beat a weak Giants club.
Winner: Redskins
The following games are on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET:
Green Bay Packers (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (2-1)-
Despite me picking the Packers to advance to the Super Bowl in the preseason, they have not gotten off to a very good start.
Aaron Rodgers’s offense is not clicking like it was last year, and with losses to the Seahawks and Lions and only a tight win over the Jets, I would be lying if I said I was not a little bit concerned. However, we must remember that Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, has a variety of solid weapons available, and the running game with the young and also talented Eddie Lacy is another reason why we should not underestimate this team.
After a tight upset loss to the Bills in week 1, the Bears have bounced right back, going on the road and beating both the 49ers and the Jets. This team has looked solid over the past couple of weeks, and as I said in the preseason, they have the talent to contend for a Super Bowl. Quarterback Jay Cutler, running back Matt Forte, and wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are all great talents, and if Chicago can just put it all together like they have been doing recently, they can definitely win the NFC North and potentially make some noise in the postseason.
This is a difficult pick because I feel like both of these two teams are around the same level of production. However, with Chicago’s recent success and Green Bay’s recent struggles, I’ll say that the home team gets a statement win.
THURSDAY UPDATE: After further consideration, while statisitcal signs may point to Chicago, I have a feeling that an elite team like the Packers can bounce back after a tough loss. If the Bears were more consistent, I would pick them. However, their lack of continued proven success and the Packers’ recent dominance in this rivalry as me changing my original pick.
Winner: Packers
Buffalo Bills (2-1) vs. Houston Texans (2-1)-
This is a very even match-up between two teams who are considered weak, but have gotten off to relatively good starts.
On one side we have E.J. Manuel and the Bills. Although they were shut-down by the Chargers last week, wins over the Bears and Dolphins have impressed me. Perhaps this shows that Manuel is developing in his process as a young NFL quarterback and that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for Buffalo.
On the other we have Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Texans. Though they have yet to play a solid team, they looked fairly dominant in wins over the Redskins and Raiders. Despite losing to the Giants last week, I am not ruling this team a bust. Fitzpatrick is not terrible, Houston does have a solid wide-out in Andre Johnson, and we cannot forget about Arian Foster, the injury-prone yet potentially elite running back who missed last week’s game due to…wait for it…an injury. Mix this in with a solid defense and you have a team who may finish around the .500 mark, not 2-14 like last year.
I went back and forth on this pick for approximately 15 minutes (whenever I do that, I almost always get it wrong so take note) but with Houston having yet to play a good team, getting beat by the Giants last week, and the Bills getting two impressive wins in the first two weeks of the season, I have to take Buffalo to squeak out a road win.
Winner: Bills
Tennessee Titans (1-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)-
With quarterback Andrew Luck quickly growing into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the Colts shook off their 0-2 start with a blowout win over the Jaguars last week. I am a huge Luck fan and continue to comfortably believe that Indianapolis should cruise to an AFC South victory.
The Titans are one of those teams that can look great one week and terrible the next, but with the talented but young Jake Locker under center, you would kind of expect that. Again, the Colts are the favorites in this division, and with Tennessee lacking a bit of explosiveness, I don’t expect them to be major contenders this year.
I can see the Titans winning this game, but with Luck’s talent and big losses to the Cowboys and Bengals, I simply cannot take Tennessee.
Winner: Colts
Carolina Panthers (2-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-1)-
The Panthers loss to the Steelers on Sunday night was surprising, but it’s nothing something I will take into tremendous consideration when picking this game.
Here’s the deal: Under Cam Newton, the Panthers cruised to a division title with a 12-4 record last year. The Ravens, on the other hand, are incredibly inconsistent, and while they can look great one week, they can also look awful the next.
Having won their past two games, I’m going to say that Baltimore is due for a bad game, and on the road, Carolina gets a big road win.
Winner: Panthers
Detroit Lions (2-1) vs. New York Jets (1-2)-
The Lions are coming off a big win over the Packers last week. As is the case with the Bears, this team has talent but often fails to put it together. Matthew Stafford has a powerful arm, wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the best in the business, and if they can limit the errors and inconsistency, they too have the potential to win the NFC North.
The Jets probably won’t have enough to contend for the postseason, but after keeping it close with two good teams like the Packers and Bears, I am not quite ruling them out. Geno Smith has shown flashes of talent, the offense looks better than in previous years, and to consider this team flat-out bad would be foolish.
This should be a tight game. I’m going to go with my gut and say that after a big win over the Packers, the Lions go into New York and suffer a little bit of a letdown loss.
THURSDAY UPDATE: With the Lions offense looking as sharp as it has, and the Jets coming off a short week, I’m switching this tough pick to Detroit.
Winner: Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)-
After seeing them lose to Derek Anderson’s Panthers, Austin Davis’s Rams, and get absolutely demolished by the Falcons, I am starting to think that the Buccaneers can make a serious contention for the NFL’s worst team. The Josh McCown offense just isn’t clicking, and a team we thought might be a bit of a surprise is making opponents laugh and fans cry.
Playing on the road against a Steelers team that looked impressive against the Panthers on Sunday night, this pick is ridiculously easy.
Winner: Steelers
Miami Dolphins (1-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-3)-
Derek Carr’s Raiders have played at a bad level so far, and with this team lacking serious talent at almost all positions, I consider them among the NFL’s worst.
Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins have suffered two disappointing losses after a big win against the Patriots in week 1. However, I continue to believe in Tannehill and that developing offense, and though I expect this game to remain relatively close, pure talent should win out in the end.
Winner: Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-1) (Sunday at 4:05 PM ET)-
The Chargers are a solid team, and with strong quarterback Philip Rivers and a good defense leading the way, they should be able to at least contend for a wild card spot in the AFC.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, are just flat-out terrible. Blake Bortles has more potential than Chad Henne, but neither is particularly good right now, the receivers are all banged up (not that they were particularly appealing to begin with), and the running game with Toby Gerhart has been a disappointment in the early going as well.
With this game in San Diego, this pick is a solid lock.
Winner: Chargers
The following games are on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET:
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2)-
The Eagles have looked solid so far. A comeback win over the Jaguars, a primetime comeback win over the Colts, and a tight win over the Redskins are their achievements, and this team is definitely the favorite to win the NFC East. Quarterback Nick Foles is demonstrating similar talent to last season, running back LeSean McCoy remains elite, and the receivers offer some nice targets for Foles in the passing game as well.
Though I also consider San Francisco a great team, they have not gotten off to the best of starts. Losses to the Bears and Drew Stanton’s Cardinals do have me a bit concerned, but with that said, I am not panicking. I continue to believe in quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the variety of receiver weapons that he has at hand, and with a solid defense on the other side of the ball, I still think that San Francisco is a playoff team.
The 49ers will be under a lot of pressure to win this game. The Eagles are due for a loss. At home, San Francisco gets a key victory.
Winner: 49ers
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-2)-
As far as overall talent is concerned, the Falcons are the clear-cut better team. Matt Ryan is a top 10 overall quarterback, the wide receiver duo of Julio Jones and Roddy White is among the best in the league, and the offense looks great…at least on paper. Atlanta struggled badly on the road last season (1-7), and considering they got thumped by the Bengals in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, some concerns do arise with how they will perform here.
Especially after the loss of running back Adrian Peterson, the Vikings are not a great team. However, probable starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has the potential to be a solid player, athletic beast Cordarelle Patterson is on the squad, they kept things close on the road against the Saints last week, the Falcons have struggled on the road, but more than anything, this is a gut call.
Upset alert!
Winner: Vikings
New Orleans Saints (1-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-1)-
Even with the Saints suffering losses to the Falcons and Browns and just barely squeaking out a win over the Vikings last week we must remember – this team is led by Drew Brees – one of the best quarterbacks in the game. He can lead an offense like no one can, and playing against Tony Romo and the Cowboys – one of the most inconsistent teams in the league (Warning: They have won two in a row), there is no way I can pick against New Orleans, especially since that elite offense thrives in dome environments.
Saints show the prime-time audience that they’ve still got it.
Winner: Saints
New England Patriots (2-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)-
As is the case with other “elite” teams like the Packers and Saints, the Patriots have struggled in the early-going, losing to the Dolphins, and barely edging out the Raiders last week. Despite Tom Brady being one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, he is experiencing a decline in production and that normally explosive New England offense is just not looking the same in 2014.
After a big loss to the Titans and a tight loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs looked like a pretty decent team against the Dolphins last week. As I have been saying, I believe that an easy 2013 schedule makes people think they are better than they really are, but with that said, they should by no means be completely written-off from the playoff picture.
In this game, Brady’s Pats have been struggling, and with running back Jamaal Charles probably back, I say that the Chiefs edge out a home win on Monday night.
Winner: Chiefs
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