Four weeks of the 2014 NFL season have already come and gone and this is where the picture starts becoming clearer.
If your team is doing well, it is becoming more and more appropriate to celebrate and look forward to a potential playoff berth.
If your team is sucking, it is becoming more and more appropriate to start panicking about how the rest of the year will pan out.
Sample sizes are no longer extremely small, and we are now approaching the heart of the football season.
On the weekly predictions, I am moving in the right direction. I went a decent 8-5 in a short week 4, and that puts me at 35-26 (57.38%) on the year. As long as I can continue to improve that season percentage and keep/exceed the pace of the pro “experts” than I will be satisified.
I have a nice feeling about this week’s picks so let’s get do it. Here’s how I think things will pan out in week 5:
Minnesota Vikings (2-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2) (Thursday at 8:25 PM ET)-
With the Packers having gotten back on track after a rough start (they looked impressive in a win over the Bears), I am expecting them to enter a hot stretch here.
Elite quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a variety of solid weapon receivers, and a young, talented running back in Eddie Lacy make this offense among the best in the league.
Playing Teddy Bridgewater and a Vikings team that might be in for letdown loss, I will take the better and more talented squad to pick up a relatively easy home victory.
Winner: Packers
The following games are on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET:
Chicago Bears (2-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-2)-
Even though the actual execution and consistency of Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offense does worry me, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte all make this a dangerous team and one that we should not underestimate any given week.
Playing Cam Newton and a declining Panthers club whose lack of offensive weapons is starting to show (blowouts losses to the Steelers and Ravens are causes for concerns), I’ll say that at home, Carolina might keep this one close.
But in the end, the Bears’ offensive firepower is too much to fight off.
UPDATE: After looking at the Panthers’ home dominance last season, I think that Cam Newton and the crew have what it takes to win this game. They squeak one out here.
Winner: Panthers
Cleveland Browns (1-2) vs. Tennessee Titans (1-3)-
The Browns have been somewhat impressive in the early portion of the season. They beat the Saints and kept things close against the Steelers and Ravens. Brian Hoyer has proven himself as a decent starting quarterback, and the offensive execution is not as bad as most of us expected.
The Titans, on the other hand, are a much bigger disappointment. The Jake Locker offense is not clicking, and after picking up a big upset win over the Chiefs, this team has done nothing in the past few weeks. I think there is a lack of playmakers, and the fact that Locker didn’t even play last week makes matters even worse.
Signs may point to the Browns, but there is a reason Tennessee beat the Chiefs – Locker and the offense can have their weeks.
At home, I think the Titans take this game…but it does depend on the health of Locker.
UPDATE: Even with Locker ready to play this game, I’m having second thoughts. The Browns are well-rested, Brian Hoyer has been leading this offense in a very good way, and even on the road, I see Cleveland pulling out a tight one.
Winner: Browns
Before you read on, I’d like to introuduce you to a weekly trivia contest I am doing. I’ll release a trivia question right here on this blog at 6:00 PM ET Thursday. Be the first to tweet the correct response to @jacobs_sports and win a virtual $10 Amazon gift card. For details, refer to the following link or the one at the bottom of this blog post: https://jacobssportstalk.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/annoucing-jacobs-sports-talk-nfl-twitter-trivia-contest
St. Louis Rams (1-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)-
This is an easy pick. With quarterback Nick Foles, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and of course running back LeSean McCoy, the Eagles have a solid amount of offensive firepower.
At home, they should be no match for Austin Davis and a weak Rams team.
Winner: Eagles
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) vs. New York Giants (2-2)-
Matt Ryan and the Falcons are a talented team, but there’s a reason I picked Minnesota to get the upset last week –Atlanta cannot always put that talent together. This is particularly the case on the road, and it once again showed last week.
The Giants struggled in the first couple of weeks, but they have looked good in the past couple of games, comfortably beating both the Texans and Redskins in the last few weeks. This game will probably be a bit more of a challenge, but with two time Super Bowl champion quarterback Eli Manning seemingly putting that offense back together, I’ll take New York to get a home win.
Winner: Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-3)-
The Buccaneers, who lost 56-14 to the Falcons in week 3, actually beat the Steelers last week. Perhaps the quarterback change from Josh McCown to Mike Glennon is a benefit, but nevertheless, this is a struggling offense that I don’t expect to do much of anything here in 2014.
As for the Saints, it is worry time. Suffering a blowout loss to the Cowboys is huge reason for concern, and while I am still a believer in Drew Brees and his elite quarterback skills, if the Saints don’t win here, it will officially be panic time in New Orleans.
Even with their recent struggles, the pick is still clear. I expect New Orleans to bounce back in a very powerful fashion. At home, I would not be surprised to see the Saints get a 30+ point victory.
Lock of the week.
Winner: Saints
Houston Texans (3-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)-
Sunday was the first time in a while that the Cowboys truly impressed me. A blowout win over the Saints caught me by complete surprise and though I am still not a believer in Tony Romo and that inconsistent Cowboys offense, I have never denied their talent. Romo is a talented QB, wide receiver Dez Bryant remains a stud, and DeMarco Murray is quickly emerging into the top tier of NFL running backs.
The Texans may be 3-1, but they have not shown too much offensive firepower over the first few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not very good, and despite a decent early record, I do not expect them to do much as far as the playoff race is concerned.
At home, Dallas moves to an impressive 4-1.
Winner: Cowboys
Buffalo Bills (2-2) vs. Detroit Lions (3-1)-
Since starting the season 2-0, EJ Manuel and the Bills have struggled badly, and as a result, Buffalo announced that quarterback Kyle Orton will start ahead of Manuel this week. I actually do think that Orton is an improvement over Manuel, and perhaps some time off is exactly what EJ needs to get back on track to being the future quarterback of the Bills. However, regardless of which QB starts under center, I still consider Buffalo a relatively weak team that should stay out of the playoff picture.
The Lions still look like the Lions of recent years. I’m going to need to see a little more from Stafford and this squad to see that they can win on a consistent level. Nevertheless, Stafford’s powerful arm and Megatron’s incredible receiving skills should carry Detroit in this one.
Winner: Lions
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)-
The Ravens have played well for the last three weeks, but a track record of inconsistency continues to worry me. Quarterback Joe Flacco may be a Super Bowl champion, but he has been very on-and-off over the years, and you just do not know what to expect from this team any given week.
The Colts have also been a tad inconsistent over the past couple of seasons, but with quarterback Andrew Luck gaining experience, that is beginning to change. Luck is emerging into a superstar player in front of our very eyes, and even with a pretty mediocre receiving core, he is making that offense roll in elite style. Look for this young Indianapolis team to continue to emerge and have a cakewalk to the AFC South title.
With the Colts playing well and the Ravens possibly due for a loss, I’ll take Indianapolis to get a home win.
Winner: Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)-
The Steelers may just be the most inconsistent team in the NFL. They looked decent against the Browns in week 1, shutdown the Ravens in week 2, got a huge road win over the Panthers in week 3, and then lost to the Buccaneers in week 4. How does that even happen?
The good news is that they’re playing the Jaguars this week. While I do think Jacksonville is making the right decision starting Bortles, I continue to believe that they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Pittsburgh should bounce back and keep their inconsistency consistent.
Winner: Steelers
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) vs. Denver Broncos (2-1) (Sunday at 4:05 PM ET)-
Even without Carson Palmer the last couple of weeks, the Cardinals have looked very impressive, especially when Drew Stanton’s crew defeated the 49ers in week 3. This is a team that has caught many (including myself) by surprise, and should now be looked at as a legitimate wild card threat in the NFC.
The bad news? They’re playing the Broncos, one of the best teams in the NFL. With still-elite quarterback Peyton Manning, receivers Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julius Thomas, and an emerging running game with Montee Ball, Denver continues to run an offense like no other and I am standing by my preseason prediction for this team – a Super Bowl title.
While I’m liking the Cardinals more and more every week, at home, Denver has a little too much in this game.
Winner: Broncos
The following games are on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET:
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)-
Both the Chiefs (vs. Patriots) and 49ers (at Eagles) played well in their week 4 match-ups.
However, San Francisco has a proven history of success under quarterback Colin Kaepernick, and I continue to believe that with all the receiver weapons that Kaepernick has at hand, this could be a dangerous team moving forward.
Alex Smith and the Chiefs don’t quite have as successful of a track record, and I feel that’s fitting – Kansas City has a lack of quality receiver weapons. I think they’re a good but not great kind of team, and with them having to go into San Francisco on a short week, I’ll say that the more talented squad comes away with the victory.
Winner: 49ers
New York Jets (1-3) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-1)-
Jets quarterback Geno Smith is hitting some bumps in his quarterback development, and as a result, New York’s offense is not looking great. Inconsistency is nothing new for this team, and since the Jets’ expectations weren’t really that high to begin with, I’d let Smith get through this slump and hopefully, he will remain the long-term answer. As for now, with a 1-3 start, New York’s postseason expectations are slim and I expect them to ultimately stay out of the playoff race once again.
With Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense clicking, they are once again looking like a wild card team in the AFC. Playing a struggling Jets team at home, I’ll take them to get a “W”.
Winner: Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) vs. New England Patriots (2-2) (Sunday at 8:30 PM ET)-
Folks, I hate to say it but I think it’s true. Perhaps it’s a bit premature, but I feel like this is the beginning of the end of the Tom Brady era.
Brady and the New England offense have looked terrible so far this year. They lost to the Dolphins, they barely beat the Raiders, and the blowout loss to the Chiefs on Monday night was a red flag that something is going on. The offense just isn’t clicking, and while the Patriots can still make the playoffs because of how wide open the AFC East is, I no longer consider New England an elite team. They’re hovering somewhere around the weak-mediocre line at this point.
Playing Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, a solid defense, and an emerging, undefeated Bengals team, I’ll predict Brady’s Pats to get blown out in prime time for the second week in a row.
After last week’s game, how could I predict any different?
UPDATE: After studying the fact that the Bengals play much better at home than they do on the road and after considering that Tom Brady and the Patriots will be in desperation in front of their home crowd, I’ll take a proven quarterback to actually bounce back after an embarassing showing last week.
Winner: Patriots
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) vs. Washington Redskins (1-3) (Monday at 8:30 PM ET)-
The Seahawks may not be as good on the road as they are at home, but they’re still talented. Quarterback Russell Wilson is a quality, emerging quarterback and the core of the offense – running back Marshawn Lynch – remains an elite playmaker.
Playing Kirk Cousins and a team that got blown out in their own stadium by the Giants (I am beginning to accept that the Redskins offense just isn’t very good), Seattle should comfortably get a win on Monday night.
Winner: Seahawks
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